Box Office Predictions Feb. 23

Warner Bros. Pictures

It looks like another Ghosty weekend. It will have a poor word-of-mouth drop-off, but it won't be enough for any of the newbies to unseat it. The other factor this weekend is the Oscars. People are more interested in decent films being rewarded than seeing poor films in a theatre. So yeah, these predictions do feel a little "afterthoughtish," but we owe it to their bankers to delve in.

5. The Astronaut Farmer $8.1m
The Polish Brothers, Mark and Mike, are on to something with their visual style, but this won't be the movie that breaks them. Their big break will come within the next five years -- that's an extra prediction for your weekend.

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4. Reno 911!: Miami $11.5m
The hardest one to get a bead on because it has vocal fans. The problem is many poor performing movies have vocal fans, and they drown out the white noise of no one else being interested. I get the sense a little over a million people are interested.

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3. Bridge to Terabithia $12.7m
Slate has a very well reasoned view of the movie, and kids in general, right here. I don't think I can top that, so I'll just drop this prediction on you and move on.

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2. The Number 23 $16.3m
This is the closest thing to a contender this weekend, and it's hopelessly flawed. If you are going to make a charge at the top slot, you'd rather not be hopeless. Or flawed.

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1. Ghost Rider $20.6m
I was way under on my projection for last weekend, but this one feels better. Week two is easier. In fact I may just start predicting old movies exclusively. Casablanca will make zero dollars this weekend at the theater.

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Check back with MaryAnn on Monday.

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Laremy Legel
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